Future fuel choices for low-carbon shipping, aviation and road transport

Climare and cost effective fuels in 2030 and 2045

The introduction of renewable fuels in the shipping and aviation sectors is crucial to reduce the transport sector’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Here, it is studied which renewable fuels are most efficient from a cost and climate perspective.

The project analyzes a large number of scenarios in the time perspectives 2030 and 2045 for different future fuel alternatives for aviation and shipping in Scandinavia. Each scenario is a combination of different conditions that affect the transport sector, such as development and cost for different technologies.

The results show that significant electrification is climate and cost-effective for both passenger and freight transport by road. Biofuels also seem to play a key role. In all scenarios, biomass-based fuels are a cost-effective way of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions of shipping and aviation. To some extent, electrofuels present a good alternative and the environmental and climate impact from these have therefore been studied in more detail.

What will be the climate- and cost-effective fuel and technology mix of the future for the transport sector, specifically shipping and aviation, depends on the development of several important factors: general availability of sustainable biofuels, development of propulsion systems (cost, performance, and use), other sectors’ demands for electricity and hydrogen-based alternatives, and expansion of electricity production with low carbon dioxide emissions. The outcome may also depend on carbon dioxide capture and storage from biomass, so-called bio-CCS, as well as the design and implementation of transport and energy policy and targets.

On 10 March, 2022, results were presented in a webinar (in Swedish):